Alouettes tangle with Tiger-Cats in home opener

Football Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ranked fifth in the most recent power rankings in the CFL, the Montreal Alouettes hope to move up as they contend against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in their 2010 home opener at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium this Thursday evening.

After getting off to a rough start in the season opener, a meeting with Saskatchewan that resulted in a 54-51 overtime setback, the Als appear to be back on the right track after putting up consecutive wins against Edmonton (33-23) and British Columbia (16-12). At 2-1, Montreal matches the surprising Toronto Argonauts at the top of the Eastern Division standings.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who is making a run at many of the all-time passing records in Montreal history, completed 30-of-47 for 297 yards against the Lions in a close call last time out. Calvillo failed to throw a touchdown pass in the contest and in fact, it was kicker Damon Duval who saved the day for the Als with four field goals and a couple of singles, accounting for the majority of the team's point production.

As for the Tiger-Cats, they dropped their first two outings of the regular season against Winnipeg and Calgary before hitting the win column with a convincing 28-7 romp over the Blue Bombers in week three of the campaign. In that meeting, Kevin Glenn hit on 29-of-36 passing for 340 yards and three touchdowns, with Maurice Mann turning half of his four catches into scores. Running back DeAndra' Cobb began the meeting with a two-yard touchdown catch and finished it with a six-yard run into the end zone as well.

From a defensive standpoint, Hamilton limited the Blue Bombers to less than 24 minutes of possession and 290 yards of offense overall, while knocking starting quarterback Buck Pierce out of action in the third quarter with a right knee injury.

As well as the defense played for the Cats last week, there has to be some concern with the squad's inability to stop opponents on the ground, given that they are second-to-last in the league with an average of 146 ypg given up to opposing runners. Even though he is far off the pace he set a season ago, Montreal running back Avon Cobourne might use this opportunity to get well and improve upon his mere 4.8 yards per carry thus far.

As a unit Montreal, which is second in the league in scoring at 33.3 ppg, has just two rushing touchdowns thus far and has sputtered since the loss in the opener when the offense erupted for significant gains. Calvillo ranks second in the league with his 902 yards through the air, leading to six touchdowns and just two interceptions, yet it still feels as though he is not nearly as precise as he was last season.

On the other hand, Glenn currently ranks third in the CFL with his 889 yards passing and has completed a league-best 70 percent of his attempts. Add to that his five TDs and just a single INT and it is easy to see why he ranks second in efficiency rating with a mark of 110.0 after three games.

With an average of just 79 yards rushing per game the Tiger-Cats are the least likely club to take advantage of the Montreal defense, but don't tell that to Cobb, who ranked fifth last year in rushing with 1,217 yards. However, even though Cobb put up three more yards overall than Cobourne, it was the latter who led the CFL in rushing touchdowns with 13, while Cobb was credited with only five rushing scores in 2009.

Last year the Als made a clean sweep of Hamilton, taking all three contests, which means Montreal now owns an 83-74-7 regular-season mark versus the Tiger- Cats going back to 1946.

The teams are set to meet two more times this season, with both of those contests being played on Hamilton's home field on September 11 and October 22.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.