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07/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics are in dire straights right now, having lost nine of their last 10 games. The A's are a pathetic 1-6 since the All-Star break and now trail the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim by 11 1/2 games in the American League West. With a 45-50 record on the season, Oakland needs an immediate turnaround in order to become a serious contender for a postseason birth in the American League.
Oakland's demise began right before the All-Star break, when the club dropped three of four games to the Seattle Mariners. The A's continued their losing after the break, dropping five straight games to the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers. Things will not get easier for Oakland over the next three weeks, as they play 20 straight games without a day off. The results of those next 20 days could in fact decide the A's season.
Oakland' series loss to the last-place Rangers was the worst showing of the 10-game stretch. Despite a solid effort from starter Dallas Braden, Monday's opener ended in a 4-1 Oakland loss.
Braden allowed four runs on eight hits through six innings, while striking out seven. The A's did little to support their hurler, however, collecting just six hits in defeat.
Tuesday's game ended in another embarrassing loss, as the A's fell by an 11-4 margin. Starting pitcher Chad Gaudin was knocked around, surrendering five runs on eight hits through six innings. However, it was the play of the Oakland bullpen that sealed the deal, as the A's relievers surrendered five runs over the final three innings.
The A's finally got things going in Wednesday's finale, capturing a 6-0 win to snap their nine-game losing streak. Starter Lenny DiNardo carried the A's to victory by allowing just three hits through seven shutout innings. Oakland only managed six hits in the win, but received a 2-for-3 performance from second baseman Mark Ellis.
Following the game, manager Bob Geren spoke about the importance of Wednesday's victory.
"It was a much-needed win for the team," Geren said. "I couldn't be happier with the entire performance, it was a real nice win."
A'S SEND STRUGGLING KENDALL TO CUBS
The A's dealt catcher Jason Kendall to the Chicago Cubs on Monday. In return Oakland received catcher Rob Bowen and minor league pitcher Jerry Blevins. The trade was not a total shock, as general manager Billy Beane has been known for making deals at the trade deadline and the team having fallen almost completely out of the playoff picture.
Kendall became expendable after failing to break out of a season-long slump that saw him bat just .226 with 26 RBI through the first half of the season.
The veteran catcher was in his third season with the A's and was coming off an impressive 2006 campaign in which he batted .295. However, Oakland's recent struggles have forced the team to make some decisions that will either lead them into the postseason, or clear some salary for the offseason market. Kendall falls into the latter, as he was scheduled to make $13.5 million this season.
Outfielder Mark Kotsay, who is a close friend of Kendall's, is optimistic he will be able to turn things around in Chicago.
"He's one of the most professional guys I've ever come across," said Kotsay. "He's just the epitome of what a big league player and teammate should be. But this is probably a good thing for Jason. He's had a lot of success in the NL Central. He had the best years of his career in that division, and I'm sure he'll be able to give (the Cubs) a big boost in what they're trying to do."
As for Bowen, he will be playing for his third team this season. The catcher played 30 games for the San Diego Padres before being traded to the Cubs on June 20. He struggled with Chicago, batting just .065 in 10 games, and is hitting .212 with two home runs and 13 RBI over 40 contests this year.
Bowen will back up rookie catcher Kurt Suzuki, who was named the starter following the trade. Suzuki has shown promise behind the plate but is struggling worse than Kendall with the stick. The rookie is batting just .200 with 10 strikeouts in 35 plate appearances this season.
Kendall's trade may signify Oakland's surrender, as the team has fallen 11 1/2 games back in the AL West. The pitching staff has been thwarted with injuries and the latest losing streak may have been enough to put the Athletics out of the race for good. However, Beane was quick to announce that the Kendall trade had no bearing on the team's immediate future.
"Certainly with the injuries we've had, we're not in a place we'd like to be sitting right now. It's quite an uphill battle. ... But this doesn't necessarily mean anything team-wise beyond [trading Kendall]."
PIAZZA ON THE MEND
Designated hitter Mike Piazza may be able to return from the disabled list, following a productive rehab stint in Triple-A Sacramento. Piazza, who has missed more than two months with a shoulder sprain, is batting .400 with a home run and two RBI during his minor league assignment. That success at the plate may prompt the A's to recall the catcher for this weekend's series against the Baltimore Orioles.
Prior to the All-Star break there was some talk about moving Piazza into a backup catcher role. However, that idea died quickly when Piazza told the A's front office that his arm would not be strong enough to catch on a regular basis. Either way, the A's need Piazza's bat back in their ailing lineup. The veteran DH was batting .282 with eight RBI in just 26 games before his injury.
Geren is excited about Piazza's return, but does not want to rush the veteran and risk further injury.
"He's gonna be ready to DH, but I can't predict how many games he'll play right away," Geren said. "But anybody that's a major hitter of his stature is going to help our lineup."
INJURY NEWS
The A's were forced to place right-hander Rich Harden back on the DL with a strained right shoulder. Harden had already missed most of the season with the same injury, but returned to the A's bullpen on June 21. He pitched well in a relief role, holding opponents scoreless over three separate appearances. However, things took a turn for the worse when he was placed back in the rotation on July 7.
Harden was forced to leave that game against Seattle after just 2 2/3 innings. He complained of stiffness upon entering the dugout and was eventually placed back on the DL for the second time this season.
Beane was not discouraged upon hearing about Harden's diagnosis, however.
"It's obviously a blow for the club, but we've managed to do a pretty good job of staying afloat without him for most of the first half," Beane said.
WHO'S HOT
Rookie Travis Buck has come on over the past month, hitting safely in seven of his last 10 games. The outfielder is batting .273 with six home runs and 23 RBI this season.
WHO'S NOT
Kotsay continues to struggle, as he has gone just 5-for-34 at the plate over his last 10 games. The center fielder is batting just .186 in the month of July and has watched his average slip to .219 on the season.
ON DECK
The A's will welcome the Baltimore Orioles to town for a three-game set from McAfee Coliseum beginning Friday. Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.36) will take on Orioles ace Eric Bedard (8-4, 3.22) in Friday's opener. Saturday's game will feature Dan Haren (10-3, 2.33) and Baltimore's Steve Trachsel (5-6, 4.95) before Braden (1-4, 6.07) and Jeremy Guthrie (5-3, 3.06) close out Sunday's finale.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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